FORBES - George Calhoun - JAN 11, 2022 -
“Mortality data to calculate actual [Covid] deaths are available in only a subset of countries where reporting systems are functioning effectively.” – A UN Report
China’s economy is slowing down. There are many causes, including stress in the property development and real estate markets, and Beijing’s crackdown on Chinese Tech. But lurking underneath is a large Unknown: How, and when, will China emerge – really, finally – from its Covid crisis?
Initially, many expressed optimism that China had beaten the virus and would gain ground on Western economies still struggling to contain it. Even the Wall Street Journal thought so.
“China’s Economy Is Bouncing Back. Success in containing Covid-19 is bringing life back to normal and helping close the economic gap with a rival As much of the world struggles to contain the coronavirus, China’s recovery is gaining momentum, positioning it to further close its gap with the U.S. economy.” – (Aug 24, 2020)
This hasn’t happened. Despite the surge in (mostly mild) Omicron cases, Western economies have done OK-to-Very-Well-(thank-you), and there is a sense that the crisis phase is coming to an end. But in China, things are murky. Entire cities are going back into hard lockdown. Omicron has arrived. There are reports of food shortages. Authorities are closing off mass transit to keep people in place. It isn't working. “Local outbreaks are springing up one after another”: Xian (13 million people), Tianjin (14 million), Anyang (1.5 million), Zhengzhou (5.5 million), Yuzhou (1.1 million), Guangzhou (15 million).
The pandemic exit-path for China is becoming much harder to assess.
The effects have been felt in the financial markets. Instead of surging ahead, China has fallen behind.
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