- FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES - Clifford D. May - Founder & President - APRIL 22, 2023 -
How many simultaneous conflicts can a small country handle? Israel – whose land area is smaller than that of Djibouti, and whose population is smaller than that of Cairo – may soon find out.
Facing existential threats, Israelis can’t resist fighting one another
The most serious threat is posed by Iran’s rulers. They continue to progress toward the development of nuclear weapons that would give them the means to achieve their openly stated goal: the extermination of Israel and Israelis.
On a visit to Germany last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that “Israel will do what Israel needs to do” to defend itself as it has for the past 75 years.
Because no other state in the region has both the will and the means to stand up to Tehran, a growing number of Arab nations have come to see that Israel’s existence serves their interests. Saudi Arabia, the most important Arab nation, has not formalized this recognition but its relations with Israelis have grown closer.
Earlier this month, however, there was an unexpected announcement: Diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran will be reestablished. The deal was brokered by China’s rulers who plan to replace the U.S. as the most influential power in the Middle East – and, over time, in every corner of the world.
That doesn’t mean the Saudis now trust their jihadi neighbors. It does mean they are hedging their bets, uncertain about who will prove to be the strong horse over the years ahead.
One source of strength for Tehran is Hezbollah, its proxy which, for all intents and purposes, controls the dysfunctional state of Lebanon.
In clear violation of agreements ending its 2006 conflict with Israel, Hezbollah has installed – in Lebanese schools, hospitals, mosques, and homes – as many as 150,000 missiles, a growing number precision-guided and therefore more lethal and difficult for Israelis to destroy in flight.
Last week, at the Megiddo Junction in northern Israel (site of the ancient city from which we derive the word Armageddon) a terrorist planted a large roadside bomb wounding a 21-year-old Israeli Arab, probably not the intended outcome.
The terrorist, identified as Ali Ramzi al-Aswad, was tracked back to Damascus where he was killed, apparently by Israeli security forces. Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a Tehran-backed group, called him a “leader.”
Islamic Jihad would likely join any new conflict between Israel and Iran or Hezbollah, as would Hamas which rules Gaza and has no higher priority than killing Israeli Jews. Both groups have now established cells in the northern West Bank where the Palestinian Authority (PA) is meant to be governing under the Oslo Accords.
Smaller Islamist terrorist organizations in this area, for example the Lion’s Den, also have been regularly carrying out attacks – 1,352 since March of last year according to FDD research.
Though most of those attacks were thwarted, at least 31 Israelis were murdered in 2022. Earlier this year, seven Israelis were shot and killed outside a synagogue in Jerusalem.
The PA’s response? According to the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, it “praises the terrorist operatives and gives their families special treatment, including financial support.”
Nevertheless, the Biden administration, as my FDD colleague Tony Badran recently wrote, is in the process of “standing up a potential 5,000-man Palestinian terror army that would ostensibly fight terrorism in the West Bank in place of the IDF,” the Israel Defense Forces. Tony is betting the Palestinian army will end up aiding and abetting terrorists and fighting the IDF.