- PRESENT DANGER CHINA - By Charles - OCT 20, 2021 -
According to recent press reports China just tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic glide vehicle. And, the American intelligence community was caught completely off guard by this test. How is that possible? How did the largest, most expensive intelligence apparatus ever-known miss this?
Upfront, it should be emphasized that this is a really big deal. The weapon in question goes into space, orbits the globe, and then dives back down into the atmosphere and glides to its target. Known as a Fractional Orbital Bombardment System, or FOBS, such a weapon can effectively strike anywhere in a completely unpredictable manner. It does not follow a fixed ballistic trajectory.
This missile is maneuverable. It can change direction. It can weave its way to its target. It travels at incredibly high speed.
This means this weapon can render our existing missile defense systems effectively useless. It can even attack from directions we have never anticipated. For instance, a Chinese weapon of this type could come towards the United States from the direction of the South Pole, while all our radar systems are focused in a different direction.
This is a game-changing weapon. This is exactly the kind of thing our intelligence services are supposed to detect.
Yet, multiple sources have reported that this launch and the capabilities of this new weapon shocked U.S. intelligence. Per the Financial Times, one source inside the Department of Defense had this response to the launch. “We have no idea how they did this.”
We spend a lot of money on intelligence. We buy a lot of gear. We employ a lot of people. That all looks good on paper, but it does not necessarily translate into collection or production.
The key missing piece in our gigantic intelligence machine is HUMINT, human intelligence. We have satellites. We have hackers. We collect emails and radio transmissions all over the planet.
All of that is wonderful. All of that can only tell you so much. And all of that is known to our adversaries, who are fully capable of defending themselves against much of this collection and leaving us blind.
At some point what you need is intelligence from human sources. That the Chinese have had an interest in glide vehicles for some time is well known. That they have been working with the concept for years is also well known. Only a spy inside the glide vehicle program, though, is going to tell you the exact status of Chinese efforts. Only a spy is going to tell you that they will launch tomorrow.
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