- SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER - MAY 14, 2023 -
The title may sound like clickbait, but read below and you’ll find that it’s frighteningly not so. But first, today’s video mashup includes Josep Borrell, once again intimating that the Ukraine war would end in mere days were the West to stop funding Zelensky’s regime. This very frank admission should give everyone an idea of how fragile Ukraine’s position is, and how desperately they hang on by a thread.
ASSIS AO VÍDEO AQUI >
The second series of videos demonstrates Russia’s massive strike, called by some the largest of the entire war thus far, on Ukraine’s Khmelnitsky ammot depot. This is merely to illustrate the next point I wish to make, which is that there is a lot of ‘recency bias’ that goes into yesterday’s attacks on the Russian air fleet. Suddenly there is doom and gloom, and the typical, expected ‘concern troll’ swarm, etc. But many people quickly forget how vast the damage is which Russia is inflicting on Ukraine on a daily basis. The cost estimate of the above Khmelnitsky strike alone was said to be over $500 million, according to DPR’s Basurin and other sources.
Rybar:
They have shaken the earth's firmament. Yesterday's massive strike on the Khmelnytskyi warehouses is shaking the ground. Our sources say that the 649th aviation depot of missile weapons and ammunition in the village of Hrushevitsya stored a significant number of anti-aircraft missiles for Western-made SAMs - including those for Patriot SAMs. According to the earthquake monitoring system of the Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre, tremors of 3.4 magnitude were felt northwest of Khmelnytskyy at 04.52 Moscow time. This fact indicates that the impact on the depots was very effective - the secondary detonation of the weapons caused seismological activity in the earth's crust. Yes, not all the stockpiles were in Grushevitsa. The Ukrainian command has been storing weapons in various depots across the country since last spring. But with periodic Russian UAV and missile raids, the loss of even a batch of anti-aircraft missiles would affect Ukraine's air defence capabilities.
Ayden here, summarizes the view:
"O EIXO DO MAL LATINO AMERICANO E A NOVA ORDEM MUNDIAL"
A Ukrainian military post complaining about how many ‘eggs’ were placed in one basket in Khmelnitsky:
In Khmelnitsky, a fire was extinguished yesterday after a strike on military warehouses. It is claimed that in addition to ammunition, 83 million euros worth of satellite communication systems, military tablets, and data encryption systems were destroyed. According to available information, a total of €200-220 million was blown up. Cargo from Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan.
In fact, an interesting RUMINT report has come out regarding this strike:
Further Khmelnitsky Depleted Uranium Update. Excellent research by Gleb Georgievich Gerasimov. A clear spike in gamma radiation was detected in Khmelnitsky on or about May 12th, with emission continuing to rise the following day and remaining at the elevated level thereafter. Considering how little gamma radiation comes from depleted uranium, this clear spike in gamma radiation in Khmelnitsky indicates that there was very large stockpile of the DU munitions that was destroyed, raising the uranium dust into the air. By comparison, the towns of Ternopol, Khmilnik, and Novaya Ushitsa (images 3, 4, and 5) remained at their apparent regular, base levels. This indicates that the Khmelnitsky anomaly is indeed a spike and corroborates the claim that the stockpile in Khmelnitsky contained DU munitions. The map viewed is attached as the sixth image. This British gift will keep on giving.
🇷🇺🇺🇦.It is worth noting that panic reports are spreading in Ukrainian social networks that during the detonation of an ammunition depot in Khmelnytsky, a large batch of British tank ammunition with depleted uranium, which was recently brought to Ukraine along with Storm Shadow missiles, was also destroyed. As a result of a huge explosion, particles of depleted uranium could be dispersed on the territory of the Khmelnytsky region, which, taking into account the experience of Yugoslavia and Iraq, could lead to an outbreak of cancer in the medium term. There are already reports that the radiation background has allegedly increased in Khmelnitsky. Let's wait for actual confirmation.
The mentioned Ternopil was also dealt a devastating blow last night, as well as other areas:
Russia inflicts such destruction that is several times more serious than even the loss of four aircraft, and it does this on a daily basis to Ukraine. Yet recency bias ensures that people glom onto the aircraft downings and forget all else, as if Russia has suddenly magically stopped winning because of one fluke occurrence.
The truth of the matter is, Russia has actually not sustained a single serious aircraft loss in quite some time now. There was a time last summer, give or take, where it was a regular weekly occurrence for them to lose at least one Su-34 or something similar. But in the past few months they’ve lost almost nothing; it has been a tremendous run, likely owed to the depletion of UA air defense. So this four losses simply catches the number up a bit. But it still pales in comparison to the massive losses being inflicted on Ukraine on a daily basis. After all, if that wasn’t the case then people like Josep Borrell wouldn’t be saying that Ukraine would collapse in literal days if Western support stopped.
Even in Bakhmut, they are still being dealt grievous blows. One source about Bakhmut counter-offensive battles:
The AFU sacrificed nearby to 2,500 personnel and dozens of military vehicles (incl. 1 Leopard destroyed by AT Mine) for their counteroffensive nearby to the Berkhoviskoye Reseirvoir and within the Soledar Tactical Region. The AFU General Staff did not anticipate this many losses; and may struggle with organising future assaults until this number is replenished with fresh meat.
Some may balk at the above; perhaps 2,500 sounds a tad high. But then ask yourself, why has this supremely successful counter-offensive stopped? If they were bulldozing over the poor Russian mobilized, who fled in horror at their approach, why haven’t they gloriously continued on? It appears to have flamed out or hit a wall of some kind. Typically, sustaining disproportionate losses is the only type of wall one could hit that would put an abrupt end to such a brief offensive. It couldn’t have been fuel or ammo, as it would be hard to expend that much in a mere couple days of fighting.
With that said, other sources claim only 1,000 men total were used in the offensive, but this is hard to believe given simply the sheer amount of areas, both north and south, which they attacked. If 1k were used over such an area, that would mean some areas would only have been a mere company or less doing the assault.
On that topic, a few updates. Prigozhin continues to claim major friction with Russian MOD: