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How prominent public health agencies are skewing vaccine effectiveness statistics in the US


The Centers for Disease Control (CDC @CDCgov) and the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (NYC Health @NYCHealthy) are misleading us about the risk of being unvaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 (CoV2).

They are doing this through two basic errors. First, they appear to be using outdated population estimates that grossly undercount the actual number of unvaccinated persons in the United States. This leads to artificially inflated estimates of COVID-19 case rates among the ever-shrinking unvaccinated population.

Second, they appear to be counting every person for whom they cannot verify vaccination status as an “unvaccinated person.” In many cases, it appears that it is taking health agencies weeks, if not months, to properly match COVID-19 hospitalizations with vaccination status, and we have no assurance that it is ever done properly at all. This has led to some jurisdictions quietly publishing significant corrections to their data weeks after initial publication — and after the media and public health officials have already run with the erroneous numbers. This is leading to both overstatement of the COVID-19 case rate for unvaccinated persons and understatement of the same rate for vaccinated persons.

A re-examination of the data without these errors will show that while the COVID-19 vaccines have been effective at reducing hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19, their effectiveness has been grossly overstated in America.


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