- JIHAD WATCH - MORDECHAI KEDAR - APRIL 11, 2023 -
I hesitated quite a bit whether to publish the things that appear below because of the panic they might cause in Israel. However, in the Middle East environment and particularly in Iraq, these things are known and serve as a topic of open discussion among quite a few, so it is unthinkable that the Israeli public should not to be aware of them as well, especially since these issues concern every Israeli citizen much more than they concern the citizens of Iraq. In addition, these things appear from time to time in the Israeli media, so I decided to discuss them here.
A source I’ve known for years – an expatriate from the Middle East, a supporter of Israel, who lives in Europe and is in continuous contact with people in Iran and Iraq – conveyed to me their assessment that Iran plans to launch a combined attack on Israel in the foreseeable future that will include all the forces at its disposal in the Arab countries:
In Lebanon – Hezbollah and Hamas with many thousands of missiles and UAVs, some of them precision missiles.
In Syria – 17 combat units (“militias”) armed and ready: Fatimiun, Zinbioun, Nujabaa’, Hezbollah, Abu Al-Fadhl Brigade, ‘Asaa’b Ahl al-Haq, Khorasani Brigade and more. Iran has transferred a very large number of missiles and UAVs to Syria and these are ready to be launched.
In Iraq – dozens of militias, armed with missiles and UAVs.
In Yemen – the Houthis, who have Iranian long-range missiles and UAVs that reach Israel.
In Gaza – Hamas and the GAP with missiles capable of disabling the Israel Defense Forces and Air Force bases.
It is likely that Iran will not launch anything from its territory to Israel in order not to expose itself to retaliation.
So much for the assessment that came to me from Iraq. Hence my interpretation.
Under the pretext of the duty of the Muslim world to save the Al-Aqsa Mosque from the Israeli occupation and oppression, Iran will conduct a staged, comprehensive, integrated and coordinated attack on Israel. The first phase will be a shower of missiles and UAVs from all the aforementioned arenas together and the Iranian estimate is that the stock of interceptors of the “Iron Dome” will run out within two to three hours from the start of the air attack, after which the Israeli skies will be open and the air force will be damaged and grounded.
The first phase, the aerial one, will be accompanied by a cyber-attack on Israeli infrastructure systems. After a full day of a cyber-attack and a rain of missiles and UAVs that will hit air force bases, navy bases, army bases, electricity, computing, communication, road and water infrastructures, the second phase will begin. This will be a coordinated ground attack from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza by infantry, mounted forces on dirt bikes and ATVs which can traverse uneven terrain equipped with anti-tank weapons and attack the Israeli ground forces in order to reach Jewish settlements as quickly as possible.
The calculation of the Iranians is that the mobilization of the reserves will take several days and at most will be partial because of the mess that will be created throughout the country. IDF reinforcements will not arrive in time to the various fronts and therefore the regular forces will collapse within hours in the face of the ground attack as happened in the Suez Canal and the Golan Heights during the Yom Kippur (1973) war. The invasion of ground forces from Syria, Lebanon and Gaza will focus on Israeli settlements with the aim of demoralizing the Israeli public and forcing the government to surrender in order to save the lives of the many Israeli civilians who will be captured by the Arab and Iranian militias. The Israeli media and especially the social media groups will increase panic among the Israeli public.