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China’s Economic Picture Grows Murkier In Xi’s ‘New Era’


Ontem compartilhei os números da Balança Comercial EUA x China, mas hoje um trecho de um artigo veiculado no NYT e alguns outros jornais me chamou a atenção. Confira:

Poucos economistas acreditam que a China está ganhando mais dinheiro com exportações por meio da inflação. O platô em contêineres, embora as estatísticas de exportação estejam aumentando, é consistente com períodos anteriores de fraqueza econômica na China, já que os exportadores exageram o valor de seus embarques para as autoridades alfandegárias como parte de estratégias complexas para retirar dinheiro da China.

Isso faz muito sentido, deve estar havendo mesmo evasão de divisas da China por esse engenhoso meio, dado que o mercado global há tempos está mais vendedor que comprador, e o Tio Sam tem atuado forte para conter os preços e uma recessão é iminente.

For the past quarter century, China was run by a well-oiled government bureaucracy that predictably focused on the economy as its top priority.

That may no longer be the case.

Xi Jinping, China’s supreme leader, made it clear Sunday at the opening of the Communist Party’s National Congress, a twice-yearly gathering of the country’s ruling elite, that politics and national security were paramount. That point was reinforced the next day when Beijing took the unusual step of delaying what should have been a routine, tightly controlled release of data on how the economy fared over the past three months.

“It shows the primacy of politics in influencing the very competent, institutional technocracy that China has,” said Victor Shih, a specialist in Chinese elite politics and finance at the University of California, San Diego.

“The very likely reason why the figures were delayed was that the State Council leaders were afraid that the figures would detract from the triumphant tone of the party congress,” he added. The State Council is China’s cabinet.

It is extremely rare for a major economy to delay the release of such an important economic report. The data included not only China’s economic growth from July to September, but also the country’s factory output, retail sales, fixed asset investment and property prices for September.

Mr. Xi, who is expected to claim a third term in power, has sought to instill confidence in China’s prospects. On Monday, a Chinese economic planning official echoed the Communist Party’s talking points about how well China’s economy was doing, saying it improved in the last quarter.

But the upbeat message was quickly undermined by news of the delayed release of gross domestic product data and how the delay was handled. Reporters who called state officials Friday and Monday about the release were told they had no information.

Contacted again late Monday afternoon, the workers said only that the release had been postponed indefinitely. The National Bureau of Statistics has still not explained the delay or announced a rescheduled date. On Friday, the government also failed to release data on exports and imports for September, and has not said when it would do so.

China’s refusal to provide statistics, combined with the haphazard manner in which the delays were communicated, suggested either that part of the bureaucracy was in disarray or that China’s economy was in worse shape than most had realized. It also raised questions about the reliability of the data.


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